Forecasting a central scenario for the U.S. economy in 2026 appears to be a straightforward exercise. But the probability ...

Many government contractors still rely on fragmented systems and static spreadsheets to project what’s ahead. That approach may work for tracking awarded contracts, but it fails to support confident ...

A group of Americans residing in Taiwan are seen gathering at a bar, watching streaming videos for live results of the election and the speech by Donald Trump on TV and laptops, before the final ...

The probability in weather forecasts leaves many people perplexed on if, or when, they should continue with plans, cancel or delay. As summer ramps up across North America, millions of travelers, ...

A groundbreaking AI model, GenCast, is revolutionizing weather forecasting by generating rapid, probabilistic global ...

Adaptive forecasting is a term used to describe several different methods of determining the likelihood of events occurring based on statistical data and variable analysis. These forecasting methods ...

Americans have long been familiar with “horse race” polls that accompany elections in the United States. But since 2008, a new polling tool has gained prominence, one that not only suggests which ...

David F Hendry receives funding from the Open Society Foundations and the Oxford Martin School. Grayham Mizon has received funding from Economic and Social Research Council. Unpredictability is ...