The probability of the inverted yield curve ending by February 9, 2024, is 32.8%, compared to 20.4% last week. There is a 23.4% probability of negative 3-month bill rates by February 5, 2027. The ...

An unprecedented inversion of the U.S. yield curve led to a sharp increase in the New York Fed's recession probability estimates. A one-month Treasury bill currently yields 2.2% more than a 10-year ...

While several indices are pointing to recession probabilities, high-yield spreads are projecting 0% chance of one. Société Générale analysts fashioned a model to estimate high-frequency Bayesian ...